Swing Trading: Crypto

Status: Scaffolded - Content pending Last Updated: 2025-12-11

How Crypto Swing Trading Works

Crypto swing trading uses the full indicator suite with 60 days of hourly data. Time stops work the same as equities since we're measuring in days.

Data Collection

Data Type	What We Get
Current Price	Real-time snapshot
Historical Bars	60 days of 1-hour candles
Bars to AI	200 most recent hourly bars
Indicators	RSI(14), EMA(9,20), SMA(50,100,200), MACD
Market Context	SPY, QQQ + ES Futures

Time Stops: Same as Equities

Unlike scalp/day where crypto differs, swing trading time stops are the same:

Trade Style	Stock Time Stop	Crypto Time Stop
SCALP	15-30 min	15-30 min
DAY	Market close	8-12 hours
SWING	3-5 days	3-5 days

This works because we're measuring in days, not market sessions.

ES Correlation Over Multi-Day Holds

For swing trades, the ES correlation is less significant:

• Intraday correlation is strong
• Multi-day correlation varies
• Crypto can decouple from equities over days

Bottom Line: ES correlation is noted but carries less weight for swing trades.

Analysis Flow

1. Data Collection (60 days, 1-hour bars)
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2. Technical Agent analyzes:
   - Major support/resistance
   - 50, 100, 200 SMA levels
   - Weekly/Monthly high/low
   - Chart patterns
   - Multi-day trend
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3. Macro Agent checks:
   - BTC dominance trend
   - Overall crypto sentiment
   - Sector rotation (DeFi, L1, L2)
   - Risk-on/Risk-off environment
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4. Wild Card Agent checks:
   - Protocol upgrades
   - Regulatory developments
   - Exchange news
   - Whale accumulation/distribution
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5. Supervisor synthesizes:
   - Entry zone
   - Stop loss (structure + volatility; expressed as $ move / % move on the coin)
   - Targets
   - Position size (fractional coins)

Position Sizing

Risk Amount = Account Size × Risk Percent
Position = Risk Amount ÷ Stop Distance (in dollars)

Example (BTC):
- Account: $100,000
- Risk: 1% = $1,000
- BTC price: $100,000
- Stop: $3,000 below entry (3%)
- Position: $1,000 ÷ $3,000 = 0.33 BTC

In dollars: 0.33 × $100,000 = $33,000 position

Exit Rules

Condition	Action
Price hits Target 1	Exit 50% of position
Price hits Target 2	Exit remaining 50%
Price hits Stop Loss	Exit 100% immediately
Time Stop (3-5 days)	Reassess or exit

Key Levels for Crypto Swings

Level	Significance
50 SMA	Intermediate trend support
100 SMA	Major trend support
200 SMA	Long-term trend (bull/bear divider)
Monthly High/Low	Key swing reversal zones
Previous ATH	Psychological resistance

What the Trade Plan Looks Like

Direction: LONG
Asset: BTC-USD
Entry Zone: $97,000 - $98,000 (50 SMA support)
Stop Loss: $94,000 - $95,000 ($3K below entry)
Target 1: $103,000 - $104,000 (50% of position)
Target 2: $108,000 - $110,000 (remaining 50%)
Time Stop: 5 days
Position Size: 0.33 BTC
Max Risk: $1,000 (1% of account)

Note: BTC currently above 200 SMA (bullish trend).
ES correlation less relevant for multi-day holds.

Crypto Swing Trading Risks

Risk	Description
Weekend Volatility	Major moves can happen Sat/Sun
Exchange Risk	Multi-day exposure to exchange
Regulatory News	Government actions cause swings
Protocol Risk	Hacks, bugs, exploits
Leverage Cascade	Liquidation events in leveraged markets