Wild Card Agent
Status: Verified against code Last Updated: 2025-12-11
Role in Plain English
The Wild Card Agent is your risk watchdog. It looks for things that could go wrong:
"What could unexpectedly blow up this trade?"
While Technical and Macro agents focus on WHY a trade might work, Wild Card focuses on WHY IT MIGHT NOT.
What It Analyzes
1. External Events (Can Override Everything)
| Event Type | Examples | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Company reports coming | Can cause 5-20% moves |
| Fed Comments | Powell speech, FOMC | Instant market reaction |
| Social Media | Elon/Trump tweets | Unpredictable moves |
| Economic Releases | CPI, Jobs report, GDP | Major volatility |
| Geopolitical | War, trade disputes, sanctions | Market-wide impact |
| Global Liquidity | Japanese yen carry trade unwinding | Market-wide crash potential |
| Company News | M&A, executive changes, scandals | Stock-specific |
2. Liquidity Risks
| Risk | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Low Volume | Hard to enter/exit at good prices |
| Wide Bid-Ask | Slippage on entry and exit |
| Thin Markets | After-hours, pre-market conditions |
| Holiday Weeks | Reduced participation |
3. Systemic Risks
| Risk | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Flash Crash | Sudden market-wide drops |
| Circuit Breakers | Trading halts on extreme moves |
| Exchange Outages | Technical failures |
| Broker Issues | Platform problems |
4. Timing Risks (Mike's Specific Rules)
| Time Period | Rule | Exception |
|---|---|---|
| Lunch Hour (12-1 PM ET) | AVOID for nano/micro caps | Breakout to new HOD with heaviest volume |
| Weekend | Consider overnight gap risk | N/A |
| Overnight | Gap risk for day trades | N/A |
| Options Expiration | Pinning risk, gamma | N/A |
| Session Transitions | Pre-market, regular, after-hours | N/A |
5. Execution Risks
| Risk | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Slippage | Fast markets = worse fills |
| Order Rejection | Broker may reject in volatile conditions |
| Partial Fills | Large orders may not fill completely |
| Stop-Loss Gaps | Price gaps through your stop |
Economic Calendar Integration (Automated)
The Wild Card Agent automatically checks a local economic calendar schedule.
What's Checked:
- Events in the next 72 hours
- Critical events flagged with warnings
- Summary provided to the LLM
Critical Events Flagged:
- FOMC meetings
- CPI release
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
- Fed Chair speeches
- Major earnings (for the specific ticker)
Example Warning in Trade Plan:
CRITICAL EVENT: CPI Release on 2025-12-12 at 8:30 AM ET
Consider: Waiting until after release, or reducing position size
Pre-Trade Checks (Current Status)
The system includes a pre-trade verification step that checks for critical events before generating a trade plan.
Current Implementation:
- Pre-trade web scraping for real-time event detection is currently advisory only
- The system returns manual check recommendations rather than automated blocking
- Users receive warnings to verify economic calendar and earnings dates independently
What This Means:
- Trade plans will include warnings like: "MANUAL CHECK REQUIRED: Verify economic calendar before trading"
- The system recommends checking for: FOMC, CPI, NFP, GDP releases, and earnings (for stocks/options)
- You should always verify critical events against external sources before executing
Future Enhancement: Automated real-time event detection is planned to provide more robust pre-trade blocking.
ES Futures Correlation (CRYPTO Only)
For CRYPTO trades, the Wild Card Agent includes S&P 500 futures (ES) correlation data.
Why? Bitcoin has shown increasing correlation with risk assets. When ES rallies, BTC often follows. When ES dumps, BTC often sells off.
| ES Move | Impact on BTC |
|---|---|
| ES > +0.5% | BULLISH bias for BTC correlation |
| ES < -0.5% | BEARISH bias for BTC correlation |
| ES flat | No strong correlation signal |
What Gets Checked:
- Live ES futures price and change
- Futures session status (open/closed)
- Settlement price from Friday (for weekend reference)
When Futures Are Closed:
[!] Futures market is CLOSED - no live ES data available
SPY/QQQ data is from Friday's close (stale on weekends)
Watch for futures open at 6pm ET Sunday for direction
International Markets (Gap Risk Assessment)
The Wild Card Agent analyzes Asia and Europe for overnight gap risk.
Gap Risk Logic
| Condition | Gap Risk |
|---|---|
| Asia bullish + Europe bullish | Potential GAP UP at US open |
| Asia bearish + Europe bearish | Potential GAP DOWN at US open |
| Mixed signals | Uncertain/flat open likely |
Session-Specific Messages
| Session | International Data Status |
|---|---|
| US Regular Hours | Less relevant (US is driver) |
| US After Hours | Awaiting Asia open |
| Weekend | All markets closed |
| Asia/Europe Active | High relevance for gap prediction |
What It Outputs
The Wild Card Agent produces a risk assessment that includes:
Risk Identification
For each identified risk, the agent assesses:
- Risk Type — External event, liquidity, systemic, timing, or execution
- Description — The specific scenario that could affect the trade
- Probability — How likely the risk is to materialize
- Impact — How severe the effect would be if it does happen
- Mitigation — Recommended actions to reduce exposure
Overall Assessment
- Risk Level — Overall risk rating from low to extreme
- Contingency Plans — Specific actions if certain scenarios unfold
- Timing Considerations — When to enter, when to wait, what to watch for
Example Scenarios
The agent might identify risks like:
- "CPI release tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET — consider waiting or reducing size"
- "Currently lunch hour — volume may be thin for small caps"
- "Earnings in 3 days — theta decay plus event risk"
Honest Uncertainty
A unique feature of this agent is explicitly stating:
"What we DON'T know and can't predict"
This is intellectual honesty — acknowledging the limits of any analysis system.
What the Wild Card Agent Can’t Predict
- Sudden geopolitical events
- Flash crash potential
- Exchange issues/outages
- Late-breaking news after international close
How Its Opinion Gets Used
The Wild Card Agent's verdict goes to the Supervisor Agent along with Technical and Macro verdicts.
Key rule: Wild cards inform but don't override directional decisions (unless a critical blocking event is detected).
The Supervisor uses wild cards to:
- Include warnings in the trade plan
- Suggest contingency plans
- Potentially reduce position size
- Note timing considerations
Implementation details are intentionally omitted from public documentation.