Wild Card Agent

Status: Verified against code Last Updated: 2025-12-11

Role in Plain English

The Wild Card Agent is your risk watchdog. It looks for things that could go wrong:

"What could unexpectedly blow up this trade?"

While Technical and Macro agents focus on WHY a trade might work, Wild Card focuses on WHY IT MIGHT NOT.

What It Analyzes

1. External Events (Can Override Everything)

Event Type	Examples	Impact
Earnings	Company reports coming	Can cause 5-20% moves
Fed Comments	Powell speech, FOMC	Instant market reaction
Social Media	Elon/Trump tweets	Unpredictable moves
Economic Releases	CPI, Jobs report, GDP	Major volatility
Geopolitical	War, trade disputes, sanctions	Market-wide impact
Global Liquidity	Japanese yen carry trade unwinding	Market-wide crash potential
Company News	M&A, executive changes, scandals	Stock-specific

2. Liquidity Risks

Risk	What It Means
Low Volume	Hard to enter/exit at good prices
Wide Bid-Ask	Slippage on entry and exit
Thin Markets	After-hours, pre-market conditions
Holiday Weeks	Reduced participation

3. Systemic Risks

Risk	What It Means
Flash Crash	Sudden market-wide drops
Circuit Breakers	Trading halts on extreme moves
Exchange Outages	Technical failures
Broker Issues	Platform problems

4. Timing Risks (Mike's Specific Rules)

Time Period	Rule	Exception
Lunch Hour (12-1 PM ET)	AVOID for nano/micro caps	Breakout to new HOD with heaviest volume
Weekend	Consider overnight gap risk	N/A
Overnight	Gap risk for day trades	N/A
Options Expiration	Pinning risk, gamma	N/A
Session Transitions	Pre-market, regular, after-hours	N/A

5. Execution Risks

Risk	What It Means
Slippage	Fast markets = worse fills
Order Rejection	Broker may reject in volatile conditions
Partial Fills	Large orders may not fill completely
Stop-Loss Gaps	Price gaps through your stop

Economic Calendar Integration (Automated)

The Wild Card Agent automatically checks a local economic calendar schedule — no web scraping required.

What's Checked:

• Events in the next 72 hours
• Critical events flagged with warnings
• Summary provided to the LLM

Critical Events Flagged:

• FOMC meetings
• CPI release
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
• Fed Chair speeches
• Major earnings (for the specific ticker)

Example Warning in Trade Plan:

CRITICAL EVENT: CPI Release on 2025-12-12 at 8:30 AM ET

Consider: Waiting until after release, or reducing position size

ES Futures Correlation (CRYPTO Only)

For CRYPTO trades, the Wild Card Agent includes S&P 500 futures (ES) correlation data.

Why? Bitcoin has shown increasing correlation with risk assets. When ES rallies, BTC often follows. When ES dumps, BTC often sells off.

ES Move	Impact on BTC
ES > +0.5%	BULLISH bias for BTC correlation
ES < -0.5%	BEARISH bias for BTC correlation
ES flat	No strong correlation signal

What Gets Checked:

• Live ES futures price and change
• Futures session status (open/closed)
• Settlement price from Friday (for weekend reference)

When Futures Are Closed:

[!] Futures market is CLOSED - no live ES data available
SPY/QQQ data is from Friday's close (stale on weekends)
Watch for futures open at 6pm ET Sunday for direction

International Markets (Gap Risk Assessment)

The Wild Card Agent analyzes Asia and Europe for overnight gap risk.

Gap Risk Logic

Condition	Gap Risk
Asia bullish + Europe bullish	Potential GAP UP at US open
Asia bearish + Europe bearish	Potential GAP DOWN at US open
Mixed signals	Uncertain/flat open likely

Session-Specific Messages

Session	International Data Status
US Regular Hours	Less relevant (US is driver)
US After Hours	Awaiting Asia open
Weekend	All markets closed
Asia/Europe Active	High relevance for gap prediction

What It Outputs

Field	What It Means
wild_cards_identified	List of specific risks found
overall_risk_assessment	low / moderate / high / extreme
recommended_contingencies	What to do if things go wrong
timing_considerations	When to enter, when to avoid
honest_uncertainty	What we DON'T know and can't predict

Wild Card Structure

Each identified wild card includes:

Field	Description
type	external_event / liquidity / systemic / timing / execution
description	Specific scenario
probability	low / medium / high
impact	minor / moderate / severe
mitigation	How to reduce the risk

Example Output

{
  "wild_cards_identified": [
    {
      "type": "external_event",
      "description": "CPI release tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET",
      "probability": "high",
      "impact": "severe",
      "mitigation": "Wait until after release or reduce position size"
    },
    {
      "type": "timing",
      "description": "Trade entering during lunch hour",
      "probability": "medium",
      "impact": "moderate",
      "mitigation": "Wait for volume to pick up after 1 PM"
    }
  ],
  "overall_risk_assessment": "moderate",
  "recommended_contingencies": [
    "If CPI comes in hot, exit immediately",
    "If lunch volume stays low, reduce position by 50%"
  ],
  "timing_considerations": [
    "CPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow - volatility expected",
    "Currently lunch hour - lower conviction entries"
  ],
  "honest_uncertainty": "Cannot predict CPI number. Cannot predict Fed reaction. Flash crash always possible."
}

Honest Uncertainty

A unique feature of this agent is explicitly stating:

"What we DON'T know and can't predict"

This is intellectual honesty — acknowledging the limits of any analysis system.

What the Wild Card Agent Can’t Predict

• Sudden geopolitical events
• Flash crash potential
• Exchange issues/outages
• Late-breaking news after international close

How Its Opinion Gets Used

The Wild Card Agent's verdict goes to the Supervisor Agent along with Technical and Macro verdicts.

Key rule: Wild cards inform but don't override directional decisions (unless a critical blocking event is detected).

The Supervisor uses wild cards to:

1. Include warnings in the trade plan
2. Suggest contingency plans
3. Potentially reduce position size
4. Note timing considerations

Implementation details are intentionally omitted from public documentation.